Is it time for Iran to receive some America military massage?

AP

Isfahan buzzes once again

Iran is rapidly rising up to the hottest spotlight of middle-east in the post-saddam era.

It’s just claimed an ‘inalienable right’ in General Assembly to develop its own nuclear technology which can easily be converted into nuclear warheads at a convenient time of its own choice—what they’re trying to do now is to gain time. ‘Yet Iran has a 20 years record of lies, cover-ups and evasions (which it shrugs off as “discrepancies”) in its dealings with IAEA inspectors.” How can we put middle-east security and stability in the trust of such a regime?

Iran also has a huge possibility to win a crucial stake in the upcoming Iraq’s Election alongside with America Allies whose soldiers sacrifice thousands of their lives to this uneasy course of democracy and freedom. In this election, we will see a much wider gap between Shiite Iraq and Sunni Iraq, which will become a time-bomb for the future Iraq and push Iraq towards the direction of a Civil War. Other than that, Iran Factor will be an unignorable major factor for America to consider during the reconstruction of Iraq, which is of course not always that pleasant to American Interest.

If Iran buys all the time they need to build up its own nuclear arsenal, will it be too late for America to do anything about it? What’s the effect of such a possibility on the Middle-east security and stability and especially on the reconstruction of Iraq? The question is: before it’s too late, is it time for Iran to receive some America military massage?

This is not just the time but also a very urgent time. The first, no matter how many times we failed before,we should always try to refer the matter of Iran nuclear crisis to U.N. Security Council, which could impose sanctions, including an oil embargo. Sanctions are a very effective soft weapon to drain Iran’s economic power. We can force Iran to lose the financial strength to carry out its ambitious plan to develop its mass-destruction arsenal and maintain an aggressive army. We can make Iran’s economic situation so bad that more Iranians will stand up against their government and so we are easier to fund the Iran anti-government organizations and build up our people basis in Iran to prepare for the future invasion. For a successful war against a gangster state like Iran which is OPEC’s second largest oil producer and holds 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and has the world’s second largest natural gas reserves (after Russia), sanctions are the most beautiful starter yet the most difficult part. Once the first part is done, we can follow the successful experience of Iraq War to defeat the drained Iran force.

But it is impossible to carry out this strategy at least for now:

Because the realities of today’s oil market, however, make any type of embargo unlikely, if not impossible, according to oil analysts:“An international embargo on Iranian oil could jack up the price of oil from the current price, now approaching $50 a barrel, to about $80 per barrel, said Robert E. Ebel, chairman of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In prices adjusted for inflation, that would be higher than when oil prices peaked in 1981. ” But to avoid this, we can raise our oil reserves so much that we can relieve them to ease the oil price pressure during the war.

Another discouraging fact is that American intelligence on Iran is inadequate to allow firm judgments about Iran’s weapons programs, and therefore wouldn’t be able to provide convincing evidences before U.N. Security Council and crucial information for Pentagon to analysis the infrastructure of Iran defence force.

Besides,Right now America Army is so deeply trapped in the swamp of Iraq war and it is unlikely that America still has the sufficient budget and force to fight a huge well-armed force of Iran in the meantime.

Time is up for Iran but Iran sure is luckier than Saddam. For the long term, America will be forced to deal with this gangster state diplomatically.